EMA Cross Strategy Backtested on 6 Binance EUR Pairs — 4 Years of Data

I ran a full backtest of an EMA 9/21 Cross strategy on six Binance EUR pairs — BTC, XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, and TRX — covering over four years of hourly data from January 2022 to May 2026. Here are the complete results, including what worked, what didn't, and why.

Full portfolio backtest report — 6 coins, 4 years, 1,446 total trades

The Strategy

The strategy is an EMA Cross with three filters designed to reduce false signals and control risk:

LONG entry:   EMA9 crosses above EMA21
              + Volume > 1.5× 20-bar average
              + Price above EMA200 (trend filter)

SHORT entry:  EMA9 crosses below EMA21
              + Volume > 1.5× 20-bar average
              + Price below EMA200

LONG exit:    EMA9 crosses below EMA21 (bear cross)
SHORT exit:   4.0× ATR trailing stop OR bull cross

Fees:         Limit orders at entry (maker 0.025%)
              Market orders at exit (taker 0.1%)

The fee simulation matters more than most people expect. Using limit orders at entry (maker rate 0.025%) instead of market orders (0.1%) saves roughly 0.075% per trade. Over 250+ trades per year across 6 coins, that difference adds up to tens of euros annually.

Full Results by Coin

Starting capital: €1,000 per coin. Period: January 2022 – May 2026 (4.4 years). Timeframe: 1h candles.

Portfolio total: +469.75€ across all 6 coins over 4.4 years. 5 of 6 pairs were profitable.

What the Numbers Actually Mean

Win Rate of ~20% — Is That Normal?

Yes, and it's expected for a trend-following strategy. EMA Cross is not a high win-rate system — it catches big moves and cuts losses quickly. The average winning trade is significantly larger than the average losing trade, which is what gives it a positive profit factor despite the low win rate.

For XRP/EUR: average win was +16.80€, average loss was -3.46€. That's a 4.86:1 reward-to-risk ratio. You only need to be right 17% of the time to break even with those ratios.

Why Did BTC Lose Money?

BTC/EUR was the only losing coin over this period. The 2022-2026 window included a prolonged bear market and sideways chop that triggered many false EMA crosses. BTC tends to be more "noisy" on the 1h timeframe compared to altcoins — it moves in smaller, less clean trends. A longer timeframe (4h or 1d) likely produces better results for BTC.

XRP and SOL — Why the Strongest?

Both XRP and SOL had strong directional moves during this period — particularly the XRP rally driven by the SEC lawsuit resolution and SOL's recovery from the FTX collapse. Trend-following strategies perform best when an asset makes sustained directional moves, which both of these did multiple times over the 4-year window.

Parameter Sensitivity

Running the Optimizer on SOL/EUR showed that the default EMA 9/21 parameters are not necessarily optimal for every coin. The best combination found for SOL was EMA 12/18, which produced +79.43€/year — significantly better than the default +49.23€/year.

This highlights an important point: default parameters are a starting point, not a final answer. Grid search optimization per coin can meaningfully improve results.

Limitations of This Backtest

Any honest backtest analysis has to acknowledge its limitations:

• No slippage simulation — in live trading, especially for larger positions, you may not always get the exact entry price
• Single parameter set — the default EMA 9/21 was not optimized per coin for these results
• Survivorship period — 2022-2026 includes specific market conditions (bear market, recovery) that may not repeat
• Paper trading only — these results are from simulation, not live execution

Past backtest performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for educational purposes.

Conclusion

The EMA 9/21 Cross strategy with volume and trend filters shows positive expectancy on 5 of 6 tested Binance EUR pairs over a 4-year period. The strategy is simple, transparent, and fully rule-based — every decision is deterministic and auditable.

The key takeaways:

1. Not all coins are equally suitable — XRP and SOL outperformed significantly
2. Parameter optimization per coin is worth doing — it meaningfully improves results
3. Fee simulation matters — limit order entries (0.025%) make a real difference at scale
4. Low win rate + high reward:risk ratio is a viable and common structure for trend-following strategies

This article is for educational and research purposes only. All backtest results are simulated and do not represent real trading performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.